At the end of September the soybean oil broke the support-line of the long-term top at 52.65. Afterwards it tested quickly this important level and turned down again. We can find the next support level quite nearly, around 48.50.
I think, this support should hold and stop the first attack of the sellers, and in a little bit more durable positive mood of the markets, the price could bounce from it. The minimum expectation in this case is the retest of the above mentioned resistance (52.65). Over it, a much stronger resistance could stop this possible rise around 54.50-54.80. In my opinion this level is to tough to bear down for a long time, and it would push down the price. It would be a great opportunity for opening short position.
On the other side of the strong support (48.50), the scenario is testing of the longer term trendlines in the 45-46 zone, and around 39. The latter level would be a good long-term setup (see the second chart).
The third chart shows a possible interpretation of the Elliott-waves. The first 4 waves are complete. The big question is whether we saw the fifth to unfold (and the soybean oil shaped a quite rare truncated fifth wave) or the long-term upwave is still in effect? To answer this question, the price has to leave the 40-60 zone.
Nincsenek megjegyzések:
Megjegyzés küldése